This paper investigates the effects of demographic change on housing price using regional panel data in Japan and the United States including housing bubble periods of 1980s in Japan and 2000s in the U.S. Our results indicate a positive relationship between demographic change and housing price in both Japan and the U.S., while controlling for income effects, interest rate effects, and new residential supply effects. One finding is that the change in housing demand induced by the change in working age population has a positive effect on housing price, while that induced by the change in population of specific ages(i.e. primal house-buying years)was not found to be robustly significant. Thus the results of this paper may not support a hypothesis that there exists a linkage between the housing price changes and the entering of baby boomers into their house-buying years, firstly proposed by a well-known paper Mankiw and Weil (1989).
住宅価格のマクロ変動 ―日米比較に見る価格変動構造の推定―
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麗澤経済研究21-2_③川村康人
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